11:55AM: Just heard an announcement on MSNBC that McCain has requested that Friday’s debate be postponed so he can focus on the economic plan in front of Congress. He also said he plans to suspend his campaign until the crisis is resolved? Not clear on exactly what was said, but this is obviously a big deal.

AP: McCain calls for debate delay.

First reaction — this is the right thing to do. Whether you like it or not, McCain’s vote on this matter is pivotal, and being in debate prep is probably not the best place for him to be.

Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) says he’s not so sure McCain’s presence is needed in DC. He says the American people could hear from the candidates in the debate. So it’s not clear that Obama is going to react positively to the McCain move.

Picture of McCain announcing the suspension of his campaign.

My first reaction was probably wrong — this was an intensely political decision by McCain and a bit of a double-cross as Obama was trying to work out an agreement between the campaigns privately when McCain decided to go public.

Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post has background.

Lots of new stories on today’s NewsJunk.

Wonkette calls McC’s move a bluff-in-vain. “You could tell after seeing that new Washington Post/ABC News poll this morning that McCain would need one helluva muppet stunt to get himself a farthingworth’s of non-horrendous attention.”

“The debate is on,” a senior Obama campaign official told ABC News.

MP3 of Obama response to McCain.

If you want to spend 40 minutes getting a high-speed update on the financial crisis, I highly recommend yesterday’s Fresh Air interview with NY Times financial reporter Gretchen Morgenson.

There’s a chin-dropping number in the interview. $60 trillion. It’s the dollar value of insurance purchased to back up the money market. It’s as if all the neighborhoods in the world were on fire and the insurance industry is going to have to deal with claims on all of it. Obviously, they never planned for that. But there’s a lot more shocking stuff in the interview, and it raises far more questions than it answers. If you’re like me, and put off understanding how our financial system really works, I’d suggest clearing out 40 minutes and have a listen.

Update: Aaron Pressman, in a comment on this post, suggests (gently, much appreciated) a rewording. “The $62 trillion (not $60) is the total amount of credit default swaps, or insurance policies, that financial firms have written on all types of debt, not just money markets. So: It’s the dollar value of insurance purchased to back up bond market investments. It’s the amount that banks and insurers are on the hook for if absolutely everything goes down the tubes.”

I wonder if a lot of people understand how the financial crisis came to be. I’m not sure I would understand it if I hadn’t gone to visit a friend who in the Sierra foothills last year.

She had inherited a house at a resort 10 years ago and had been living there ever since. It’s a big house, but the construction wasn’t finished. There were fixtures to be installed upstairs, and the driveway wasn’t paved, but for the most part it was done.

She didn’t have a job, but she had been taking out loans on the property every couple of years, and at first I didn’t understand how she could do that, until I realized that the property value had kept increasing so even though she was spending most of the money she borrowed on living expenses and improvements to the property, she always had equity she could borrow against. Every two years she’d take out another loan, max out her equity, but in a couple of years the value would go up and she’d be able to take out another loan.

Until the value stopped going up, then the party was over. She still had to make payments, but now she didn’t have the means to. She defaulted, left the house, and the bank took over. If they could sell it, it would be at a considerable loss.

I think a lot of people were doing that.

And I think that’s where the trouble started. Making those loans was a profitable business, and a lot of people wanted some of the action. At one point I even wondered how I could, but I never (thankfully) figured it out. As long as real estate kept going up, everyone kept making money. There was even a way to rationalize it. The United States is where everyone in the world wanted to live. So property would keep increasing in value as long as there was growth somewhere in the world. But it turns out that China and India, Russia and Brazil are pouring their new money into their own countries, reproducing the infrastructure we already have, building their own highways, hospitals and universities.

When real estate started going down, the value of all those mortgages went down, in some cases way way down. Then the house of cards built on the ever-increasing value of real estated collapsed. That’s the part you’ve been reading about. Banks need to have a certain dollar value of assets to back loans they get from other banks. When the value of the assets go down, their loans get called, they have to sell these assets to pay back their creditors, but no one wants to buy them. That’s when you hold up the big Fail sign and hope someone thinks you’re too big to Fail.

But really, this is probably the shit hitting the fan, it’s probably not a liquidity crisis as Paulson says. It’s our laziness, our thinking that our superior military and nukes would guarantee us a permanent position at the top of the pyramid. We don’t make enough of the things people want these days, and instead of investing in building better education, health and infrastructure, and solving the energy problem, we’ve been lying to ourselves.

We also fucked up by electing idiots to lead us, and letting the press get away with providing entertainment instead of keeping us informed on what the rest of the world was doing. This led us to elect ever more dishonest idiots to lead us, and they didn’t like what little oversight the press provided leading to the ridiculous situation where the candidates won’t even sit down for an interview, and you can hardly blame them, the reporters are such incompetent jerks.

I heard someone say that the real estate bubble isn’t the problem it’s the canary in the coalmine, the first financial crisis of a series of crises. I believe this is probably true. I thought we had time to solve these problems, what Obama was saying and certainly still is saying are the right things: education, health care, infrastructure, energy. And pull back from the short cuts. We can’t afford boondoggles like the war in Iraq, but it may already be too late.

No matter what, as a country we have to stop looking for the quick fixes, and start thinking about our future and doing the things we need to do to have one.

Of course all this comes at an opportune moment. We can change direction on November 4. That’s not actually very far away and another opportunity like that won’t come for a long time. Something to think about.

I’m absolutely sure the economic bailout story is going to end with Bush and Cheney resigning. Or more accurately, not end, but move on to the next phase. Pretty sure they will be gone by the end of the week.

It’s the only thing that will give Republicans cover, and will let the Democrats feel they are not being set up. It will get everyone’s attention and remove the theory that it’s more Bush-Cheney deception.

Bush and Cheney have no credibility, the only thing they can do right now to help the country, if that’s really what they’re doing, is to step aside.

I wrote up the idea in more detail yesterday.

It’s going to shake a lot of people up, but they have to go, now.

A sure sign this idea will come up on a broader level is this story on Politico about an open rebellion among House Republicans in a meeting with Cheney earlier today.

Meanwhile OpenLeft says the Paulson plan is a sham, and former Speaker Gingrich urges Congress to reject it, saying any Rep that votes for it will lose in the November election.

Update: An alternate theory — if McCain puts his head on the chopping block that could provide enough cover for Republicans and Democrats to vote for the proposal.

There’s this great Who song that you should play before reading this post. One of the greatest rock and roll bands of all time. They sang about their generation and the magic bus, told Tommy to go to the mirror, but today’s song is about not getting fooled again.

Flash back to the United Nations on 2/5/03. An impressive almost Presidential Secretary of State, Colin Powell, delivering some chilling news, not coming right out and saying it, but definitely leading you to believe that Saddam has nukes and chemical weapons and stuff even more horrible and is getting ready to use all of it in some unspecified horrible way. It’s the lack of specificity that makes it so chilling.

Consider the whole scenario. Powell can’t tell us what the danger is because that would violate some security that he can’t violate. Well, I did what a lot of Americans did that day, I sucked it up and got behind my government. And they suckered me. And I’ll never forget it. I got fooled, and used, and a lot of people died, in the name of freedom, and it was all a lie.

We all paid a huge price that day, and the bill may be coming due today, because they’re presenting us with the same scenario, this time about the economy. And we’re not going for it. You can see it in the way things flipped around overnight. A lot of people woke up this morning, like I did, and realized — wait I’ve seen this movie before.

Now we have another impressive Almost Presidential secretary, Henry Paulson, who says there’s impending doom, but he can’t say exactly what it is, it’s not security this time, but fear of starting another level of bank runs. Senators and Representatives come out of a Thursday night meeting with the secretary (would they have believed the President) won’t say exactly what he said, but they are stunned. The next day buried in a sea of press about this event is an almost innocuous paragraph in a NYT piece that talks about a flight to safety from the US Treasury money market. OMG. A point made by the secretary to the Congresspeople, a lot of your constituents have their savings in money markets. The Senators think to themselves, Fuck the constituents, that’s where my retirement savings are! (And by the way, mine.)

An aside, I never realized this until recently, but Congress was very easily whipped by fear of terrorism. The fourth plane on Sept 11 was likely headed for them. We were all so busy thinking about ourselves we forgot to notice that they had a huge conflict of interest, they were targets on Sept 11, and probably many of them suffering from post-traumatic stress from it.

Anyway, back to our story…

Having been fooled once, sure there are some among us who will be fooled again, but we will not all be fooled again, as evidenced by the posts on all kinds of blogs. This is one of those amazing days that except for stylistic elements the extreme right and the extreme left are in agreement. We can’t trust Paulson the way he’s asking to be trusted. It wouldn’t be prudent.

On the other hand, what if they’re right, and don’t want to speak the unspeakable for fear of provoking a run on the credit markets that would wipe out your savings and mine? If you’ve been conservative, as I have and many other have, do you want to be poor? Want to lose your house? Want to live on the street? No health care. No job. How long do you think you’d last? Think it might be worth $1 trillion to prevent that? I do. I bet you do too. But we can’t do it on the terms that Paulson asks for. There has to be some pain and there has to be oversight and checks and balances. There’s no such thing as a law passed by Congress that can’t be judged by the courts. Not in the USA, not under our form of government. And no way is Bush going to get that by us.

So here’s what I propose. The Republican slogan today is Country First. So let’s see the Republicans do a little of that famous Country First stuff.

Bush and Cheney must resign immediately. No immunity, no pardons. Nancy Pelosi will become President, promising not to run for re-election on November 4. Her term will be one of the shortest in US history, just long enough to enact the provisions of the bill being proposed by the Republican administration. If it really is the best thing for the country and not a trick, then the Republicans, being impressed by the seriousness of it, would have to insist that Bush step aside and let the Democrats execute the plan. The entire Bush cabinet stays in office through January 20, but reports, of course to Pelosi. And that includes Paulson.

It’s pretty simple. If they won’t do it, we know they’re bluffing.

If they will, I will give my support to the plan, even though I still don’t know what will happen if I don’t.

Updated: An abbreviated to-the-point version of this piece on Huff.

Madison, Wis. — Residents receiving rental assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) due to this summer’s severe storms and flooding should let FEMA know if they still need housing assistance, said emergency management officials.

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

South
A low pressure system will bring rough seas, strong winds, storm surge and beach erosion from the North Carolina coast south through Florida.

Rain from this system is forecast to spread inland into eastern Georgia and much of South and North Carolina during the day today.

The winds, surge and waves at the coast should begin to diminish tonight.

Northeast
By this evening, rain will continue into the I-95 corridor and move northeast into southern New England and strong winds, rough seas, storm surge and beach erosion will occur from Cape Cod southward to Virginia today and tomorrow.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Puerto Rico Heavy Rainfall

The Puerto Rico Emergency Operations Center (PR EOC) is partially activated 24/7, along with the Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency (PREMA) Joint Information Center (partially activated), select ESF’s and US Coast Guard Liaison.

The Governor has declared a State of Emergency and the Puerto Rican government has reported five (5) confirmed fatalities and zero (0) injuries due to heavy rainfall and flooding.
Seventeen (17) shelters, with a population of 521 (in 16 municipalities) are open, while 14 preventative shelters remain open in twelve (12) municipalities.  (FEMA Region II SPOT Report, Sep 24)
Thirteen (13) rivers are flooded and a total of 47 major roads in 27 municipalities are closed due to flooding or mudslides.

The Puerto Rico Electric and Power Authority (PREPA) reports approximately 4,000 (0.28%) customers are without service and the Puerto Rico Aqueduct Sewer Authority (PRASA) reports about 37,303 (2.99%) customers are without service.  Restoration of utilities is unknown at this time.

Public schools remain closed in 14 municipalities due to heavy rains and flooding.

Joint IA and PA Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) will began yesterday, September 24, in 12 municipalities with PA and IA PDAs requested for an additional 13 municipalities.  Also, facilities are being pre-identified for a potential JFO.

The Puerto Rican Army National Guard (PR ArNG) has 54 soldiers on State Active Duty (SAD) for water distribution, debris clearance, equipment transportation and civilian relocation.  There are 7,893 personnel available statewide and 18,821 personnel available regionwide.  (FEMA Region II & CAD, PREMA, VITEMA, NWS, NGB SitRep #3)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike and Midwest Storms

Region V
Ohio
The State EOC is activated at Level II (Partial Operations).
There are seven (7) fatalities and one (1) injury reported.
There are no shelters reported open, while the US Department of Energy (DOE) reported there are 9,595 customers without power.  Power restoration is expected to be completed in the next 24 - 72 hours.  (Region V Operations Report Sep 24, DOE Sep 24, NSS Shelter Report, Sep 24)

Indiana
The State EOC is activated at Level IV (Normal Operations) and Joint PDAs have been completed in five (5) counties, while two (2) counties continue to assess damages from the severe weather.
There are eight (8) fatalities and 19 injuries reported.
There is one (1) shelter open with a population of 75, and the US DOE reported there are 6,186 customers remain without power.  (Region V Operations Report, Sep 24; DOE, Sep 24; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 24)

FEMA Region VI

Louisiana
The Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) is activated at Level III (Emergency Operations).
There are five (5) fatalities and zero (0) injuries reported.
There are five (5) shelters open with a population of 343, and the US DOE reported 12,287 customers are still without power.
There are 14 Disaster Recovery Centers (DRCs) and two (2) Mobile Disaster Recovery Centers (MDRCs) in support of Hurricane Gustav/Ike recovery efforts.  (SLB, Sep 23; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23; DOE, Sep23)

Texas
The State Operations Center (SOC) is activated at Level I, 24/7 Operations.
There are 19 fatalities and zero (0) injuries reported.
There are 65 shelters open with a population of 5,638, and US DOE reports that 502,637 customers remain without power.
FEMA continues to supply commodities to the Texas State-managed Resource Staging Area.
There are seven (7) Disaster Recovery Center (DRCs) and 13 Mobile Disaster Recovery Center (MDRCs) operational in the state.  (JFO SitRep #13; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23; DOE, Sep 23; SLB, Sep 23)

Presidio, TX Levee Issue Update:
Local gauge readings and flow rates of the Rio Grande River at the Presidio Port of Entry (POE) continue to decrease as the water release rate from the Luis Leon Reservoir in Chihuahua, Mexico was reduced to 600 cubic meters per second.  
The International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) reported the levees are holding, but levee integrity remains a concern.
Levee mitigation work continues, with over 25,000 sandbags filled and placed on the existing levee to add support. (NOC Awareness Report, Sep 24; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 24; DOE, Sep 24)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
93L - High Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, September 25, another well-defined low pressure system, centered about 140 miles east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands, is moving northward at 10-to-15-mph.

Thunderstorm activity has increased and become better organized during the past several hours, and upper-level winds are expected to gradually become more favorable for a tropical depression to develop during the next day or so.  In addition, the threat for heavy rainfall, associated floods and mudslides over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will continue through today.

Extratropical Low - High Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, September 25, a well-defined surface low pressure system, centered about 225 miles southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border, is moving slowly westward.  Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized this morning, and this system could develop into a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today.

Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a subtropical or tropical cyclone, strong winds, coastal flooding, high surf and dangerous rip currents will continue along portions of the US east coast during the next couple of days.  Outer rain bands are already spreading onshore on the southeastern coast of North Carolina, and buoy and ship reports indicate winds in excess of 50 mph are occurring north and west of the center.

Eastern Pacific:
No tropical cyclone expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, September 24, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (67)
New large fires: 0
Uncontained large fires: 4
Large fires contained: 0
States with large fires: CA, NV, OR

Predictive Weather:  A cold front will move across the Pacific Northwest, bringing cloudy and cooler conditions, along with showers along the coast.  However, further south across northeast California and Nevada, this system will bring gusty southwest winds of 20-35 mph with low humidity.  Gradual warming and drying across the Southwest and into the Central Rockies as high pressure strengthens across the Four Corners region.  Some of this warm, dry air will also spread further east, across the Ohio Valley and into much of the Southeast, except for coastal areas where heavy rain is expected. (NIFC, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Illinois:  The Governor of Illinois requested a Major Disaster Declaration for the State of Illinois as a result of Severe Storm and Flooding from September 13, 2008 and continuing.  The request includes Individual Assistance for 7 counties (Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, LaSalle and Will) and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

Oklahoma: The Governor requested an expedited Major Disaster Declaration for the State of Oklahoma as a result of Severe Storms and Tornadoes that took place on September 11, 2008.  The request includes Individual Assistance and Public Assistance (including direct Federal assistance) for five counties (Alfalfa, Grant, Kay, Major and Woods) and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

Amendment #10 to FEMA-1785-DR-FL adds Martin County for Individual Assistance; Alachua, Gadsden, and Liberty Counties for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance) and Lee County for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance).  (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Puerto Rico Heavy Rainfall

The Puerto Rico Emergency Operations Center (PR EOC) remains partially activated 24/7, along with the Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency (PREMA) Joint Information Center (partially activated), select ESF’s and US Coast Guard Liaison.

The Governor requested a Major Disaster Declaration and the Puerto Rican government has reported five (5) confirmed fatalities due to heavy rainfall and flooding.

Sixteen (16) shelters, with a population of 487 (in 16 municipalities) are open, while 14 preventative shelters remain open in twelve (12) municipalities.

Thirteen (13) rivers are flooded and a total of 43 major roads are closed due to flooding or mudslides.

The Puerto Rico Electric and Power Authority (PREPA) reports approximately 4,000 customers are without service and the Puerto Rico Aqueduct Sewer Authority (PRASA) reports about 18,644 customers are without service.  Restoration of utilities is unknown at this time.

Public Assistance (PA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) were completed in 18 municipalities, Individual Assistance (IA) PDAs were completed in 22 municipalities and PDAs are scheduled for 9 more municipalities, continuing through the weekend.

The Puerto Rican Army National Guard (PR ArNG) has 54 soldiers on State Active Duty (SAD) for water distribution, debris clearance, equipment transportation and civilian relocation. (FEMA Region II & CAD, PREMA, VITEMA, NWS, NGB SitRep #3)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike and Midwest Storms

Region V
Ohio
The State EOC is activated at Level II (Partial Operations) and Joint PDAs are scheduled to begin on October 26.
There are eight (8) fatalities and ten (10) injuries reported by the state.
There are no shelters reported open, while the US Department of Energy (DOE) reports there are 9,595 customers without power.  Power restoration is expected to be completed by midnight, September 26.

Illinois
One (1) fatality is reported by the state.
IA PDAs were completed and PA PDAs are scheduled to begin on September 29.

Indiana
The State EOC is activated at Level IV (Normal Operations) and Joint PDAs were completed in five (5) counties and are ongoing in two (2) counties.
There are eight (8) fatalities and 19 injuries reported by the state.
There is one (1) shelter open with a population of 95, and the US DOE reports there are 6,186 customers remaining without power.  (Region V Operations Report, Sep 25; DOE, Sep 25; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 25)

FEMA Region VI
Louisiana
The Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) is activated at Level III (Emergency Operations).
There are five (5) fatalities reported by the state.
There are seven (7) shelters open with a population of 430, and the US DOE reports 12,287 customers are still without power.
Nineteen (19) of 21 PDAs are completed and there are no reported shortfalls or critical issues at this time.
There are 14 Disaster Recovery Centers (DRCs) and two (2) Mobile Disaster Recovery Centers (MDRCs) in support of Hurricane Gustav/Ike recovery efforts.  (SLB, Sep 25; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 25; DOE, Sep 25)

Texas
The State Operations Center (SOC) is activated at Level I, 24/7 Operations.
There are 19 fatalities reported by the state.
There are 66 shelters open with a population of 4,653 and US DOE reports that 482,840 customers remain without power, with the highest percentages in Harris (393,251), Galveston  (28,098), Brazoria (23,013) and Jefferson (less than 888) Counties.

FEMA continues to supply commodities to the Texas State-managed Resource Staging Area.
There are seven (7) Disaster Recovery Center (DRCs) and 13 Mobile Disaster Recovery Center (MDRCs) operational in the affected areas.  (NSS Shelter Report, Sep 25; DOE, Sep 25; SLB, Sep 25)

Presidio, TX Levee Issue Update:
The release of water from the Luis Leon Reservoir in Chihuahua, Mexico is reduced and hardening of the levees on the U.S. side of the border is complete. (NOC Awareness Report, Sep 25; FEMA HQ)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Kyle
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm (TS) Kyle was located about 510 miles south-southwest of Bermuda.

TS Kyle is moving toward the north near 12 mph and a turn toward the north-northwest, accompanied by a gradual increase in forward speed, is expected later today and on Saturday, September 27.  On this track, the center of TS Kyle and the strongest winds are forecast to remain west of Bermuda.

Reports from a US Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and TS Kyle could become a hurricane by Saturday, September 27.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, mainly east of the center, and the minimum central pressure recently measured by reconnaissance aircraft was 997 mb (29.44 inches).

Extratropical Low #1 - Low Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, September 26, a well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system has moved inland over northeastern South Carolina and is located about midway between Myrtle Beach and Florence.

Strong winds, coastal flooding, high surf and dangerous rip currents will gradually subside along the coasts of North and South Carolina today, but will continue along portions of the US mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two.

Extratropical Low #2 - Low Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, September 26, an area of disturbed weather, located in the Bay of Campeche, is moving slowly eastward toward the Yucatan Peninsula.  There are some signs of organization, but this system is expected to move inland over the Western Yucatan before any significant development can occur.

The system could still bring heavy rains to portions of southern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
 
Eastern Pacific:
There is no tropical cyclone activity expected in the next 24-48 hours.

Western Pacific:
There is no tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories.  (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Thursday, September 25, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (67)
New large fires: 3
Uncontained large fires: 6
Large fires contained: 0
States with large fires: CA, OR  (NIFC)

Predictive Weather:  Warm and dry across the southwest and central Rockies as high pressure continues to dominate across the Four Corners region.  Southwest winds of 20-30 mph across much of the Great Basin westward to the Sierra Range in eastern California are forecast.  Dry and warm across parts of the Ohio Valley across the northern Florida Panhandle.  Heavy rains and strong winds are expected as a coastal storm moves onshore across the Carolinas up through the mid-Atlantic Seaboard.  Cool, onshore flow across the Pacific Northwest with widespread showers.  (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Puerto Rico:  The Governor of Puerto Rico requested a Major Disaster Declaration as a result of Severe Flooding beginning September 21, 2008 and continuing.  The Governor is requesting Individual Assistance for eight municipalities and Hazard Mitigation for the entire Commonwealth. (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Strong winds, heavy surf and beach erosion will affect beaches through the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and Thursday. 
Wind gusts around Tidewater, Virginia could exceed 40 mph by late in the day today, with tides running 1-to-3-feet above normal.

South
Heavy surf, gusty winds, dangerous rip currents and increasing rain in the coastal areas in North Carolina, especially the Outer Banks, are forecast for today.

Midwest
A decreasing cold front may still trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms from the Great Lakes to the central Plains.
A few storms may become severe over parts of southern Iowa and Nebraska.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Puerto Rico Heavy Rainfall (93L)

The Puerto Rico Emergency Operations Center (PR EOC) is partially activated 24/7, along with the Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency (PREMA) Joint Information Center (partially activated), select ESF’s and US Coast Guard Liaison.
The Governor has declared a State of Emergency and the Puerto Rican government has reported four (4) confirmed fatalities and zero (0) injuries due to heavy rainfall and flooding.
Seventeen (17) shelters, with a population of 528 (in 15 municipalities) are open, while 14 preventative shelters remain open in twelve (12) municipalities.  (FEMA Region II SPOT Report)
Thirteen (13) rivers are flooded and a total of 27 major roads in 17 municipalities are closed due to flooding or mudslides.
The Puerto Rico Electric and Power Authority (PREPA) reports approximately 5,800 (0.37%) customers are without service and the Puerto Rico Aqueduct Sewer Authority (PRASA) reports about 36,774 (2.94%) customers are without service.  Restoration of utilities is unknown at this time.
Public schools remain closed in 14 municipalities due to heavy rains and flooding.
Joint IA and PA Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) will begin today, September 24, in 12 municipalities with PA and IA PDAs requested for an additional 13 municipalities.  Also, facilities are being pre-identified for a potential JFO. (FEMA Region II & CAD, PREMA, VITEMA, NWS)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike and Midwest Storms

Region V
Ohio
The State EOC is activated at Level II (Partial Operations).
There are seven (7) fatalities and one (1) injury reported.
There is one (1) shelter open with a population of 12 while the US Department of Energy (DOE) reported there are 25,309 customers without power.  Power restoration is expected to be completed by early next week (Sep 29).  (Region V Operations Report Sep 23, DOE Sep 23, NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23)
Indiana
The State EOC is activated at Level IV (Normal Operations) and Joint PDAs continue to assess damages from the severe weather.
There are eight (8) fatalities and 19 injuries reported.
There is one (1) shelter open with a population of six (6) and the US DOE reported there are 6,186 customers remain without power. (DOE, Sep 23; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23)

FEMA Region VI
Louisiana
The Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) is activated at Level III (Emergency Operations).
There are five (5) fatalities and zero (0) injuries reported.
There are seven (7) shelters open with a population of 489 and the US DOE reported 12,287 customers are still without power.
There are 14 Disaster Recovery Centers (DRCs) and two (2) Mobile Disaster Recovery Centers (MDRCs) in support of Hurricane Gustav/Ike recovery efforts. (SLB, Sep 23; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23; DOE, Sep23)
Texas
The State Operations Center (SOC) is activated at Level I, 24/7 Operations.
There are 19 fatalities and zero (0) injuries reported.
There are 126 shelters open with a population of 11,937, and US DOE reports that 745,241 customers remain without power.
All FEMA-managed Points of Distribution (PODS) have been closed.  FEMA continues to supply commodities to the Texas State-managed Resource Staging Area.
There are three (3) Disaster Recovery Center (DRCs) and 11 Mobile Disaster Recovery Center (MDRCs) located in Texas.
The City of Galveston will reopen today, September 24, and the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has established 28 Rights-of-Entry (ROE) sites for citizens to register their property for the Blue Roof Program.  (JFO SitRep #13; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23; DOE, Sep 23; SLB, Sep 23)
Presidio, TX Levee issue update:
Presidio County, along with the City of Presidio, continues efforts to mitigate the flood impacts from the Rio Grande River. 
Over 1,300 sandbags are being placed on the existing levee to add support; in total, 6,500 sandbags are in place in all the problem areas.  The Department of Defense (DoD) continues to provide CH-47 helicopter support to provide sandbags and supplies.
Helicopters are being used to fill in openings under bridges with large sandbags in an existing railroad right-of-way to create secondary levees.
Mexico has temporarily slowed the rate of water release from the Luis Leon Reservoir in order to allow workers time to shore up the Presidio levees.
The response priorities for this incident are to prevent levee failure, continue maintaining emergency shelter operations, ensure Public Health needs are addressed, providing water/wastewater services in the City/County if a catastrophic flood event occurs and providing for a rapid response for search and rescue should the levees fail. (TX SOC Rio Grande River Flood Event SITREP # 3, USNORTHCOM)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
93L - High Potential for Tropical Cyclone Development
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, September 24, the broad area of low pressure over Hispaniola continues to generate a large area of cloudiness and showers, extending northward from the northeastern Caribbean Sea, across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and into the western Atlantic.
This system is interacting with land and has not yet developed a well-defined surface circulation, but atmospheric conditions remain favorable for development and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as this system moves north of Hispaniola.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are expected to continue over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today.
Heavy rains could also spread northward over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today or tonight.
Eastern Pacific:
90L - Low Potential for Tropical Cyclone Development
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, September 24, shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with the surface low pressure system located approximately 430 miles south of the southern tip of Baja, California.
This system is expected to move west-northwestward over the next two days and further development, if any, should be slow to occur.
Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, September 23, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (70)
New large fires: 0
Uncontained large fires: 4
Large fires contained: 1
States with large fires: CA, NV, OR

Predictive Fire:  It will become warmer and drier from Texas westward across the Southwest as high pressure starts to build in across the Four Coners region.  The Northern Rockies area is also forecast to dry out and become a little warmer.  A cold front will approach the Pacific Northwest and northern California, bringing a cool westerly onshore flow, along with increasing high clouds.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue again across Florida.  Elsewhere, the forecast calls for mainly seasonable, early fall conditions. (NIFC, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President signed a Disaster Declaration, FEMA-1795-DR, for severe storms and flooding that occurred in Indiana, September 23, 2008 and continuing.  Three (3) counties (Lake, LaPorte and Porter) are eligible for Individual Assistance and Hazard Mitigation is approved statewide.  The FCO will be Stephen M. DeBlasio, Sr. (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

National Weather

Midwest
A cold front moving from the High Plains may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, to the northern Plains today.  Flood Warnings continue for numerous rivers in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Michigan.  Highs will range from the upper 60s in northeast Michigan to the upper 80s in western Kansas.
Northeast
Light showers may appear in parts of southern New England but the majority of the region will enjoy dry weather today.  High temperatures will range from the mid-50s in northern Maine to the mid-80s in south-central Virginia and West Virginia.
South  
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the Carolina coasts, southern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle and upper Texas Gulf Coast.  Numerous Flood Warnings remain in effect for portions of Texas, Florida and Louisiana.  High temperatures will range from the mid-70s in the southern Appalachians to around 90 in parts of Texas and South Florida.
West  
An area of low pressure may bring showers and thunderstorms to parts of the Pacific Northwest, Montana and Wyoming with more concentration over the Bitterroots and northwest Wyoming.  Temperatures will range from the 40s in some northern mountain locations to the 100s in the Mohave and Sonoran Deserts. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Puerto Rico Heavy Rainfall (93L)

• The PR EOC is partially activated 24\7 with select ESF’s.
• 2 unconfirmed fatalities; no injuries reported
• 16 shelters; population 75
• Puerto Rico has received more than 10 inches of rain, and the prediction is for continued rain today.
• FEMA Region 2 Caribbean Office will have a liaison at the PR EMA at 6:00 a.m. EDT today.  The Caribbean Office will be in contact with the Director of PR EMA and a report is expected to be provided to the NRCC by about 9:00 a.m. EDT today.
• No Federal assistance is being requested at this time.

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike and Midwest Storms

Region V
Illinois

• State EOC will return to normal operations today.
• Joint PDAs are ongoing.
• 1 fatality; no injuries reported
• 4 shelter; population 7 (Region V Sept. 21)

Ohio

• SEMA Assessment Room is activated 7:00 a.m. - 9:00 p.m. CDT
• 7 fatalities; 1 injury reported
• 122,440 customers remain without power.  (DOE Sept. 21)
• 1 shelter; population 2 (NSS as of Midnight EDT Sept. 21)

Indiana

• State EOC is activated at Level III
• Joint PDAs are ongoing.
• 8 fatalities; 19 injuries reported
• 6,186 customers remain without power. (DOE Sept. 21)
• 3 shelters; population 103.  (NSS as of Midnight EDT Sept. 21)

FEMA Region VI
Louisiana

• GOSHEP activated at Level III
• 5 fatalities; no injuries reported
• 3,844 customers remain without power  (DOE as of 6:00 p.m. Sept. 21)
• 5 shelters; population 340. (NSS  Sept. 21)

Texas

• Activated at Level I, 24/7
• 19 fatalities; no injuries reported. (JFO Sitrep #12)
• 867,053 customers remain without power. (DOE as of 6:00 p.m. Sept. 21)
• 77 shelters; population 7,656. (NSS Sept. 21)
• The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has established 18 Rights of Entry (ROE) sites for citizens to register their property for the Blue Roof Program.
• 23 USACE Debris crews are deployed conducting emergency clearance operations on Galveston Island, Orange, Harris, and Chambers counties.

Presidio update: 
The National Weather Service Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for the Rio Grande in Presidio County, Texas.  Reservoir releases out of Luis Leon reservoir will continue into next week with considerable fluctuations in water levels; however, river flow has decreased since yesterday causing the river levels to lower temporarily.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
93L - High Potential for Tropical Cyclone Development
There has been little change in organization of the broad low pressure area located near western Puerto Rico; however, upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more favorable for development and the system could become a tropical depression later today as it moves slowly north or north-northwestward during the next couple of days.  Regardless of whether this system becomes a tropical depression it will continue to produce very heavy rainfall over Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands into Tuesday.  Reports from Puerto Rico indicate that 10 to 20 inches of rain has already fallen on portions of the island and these rains have already produced flash floods and mudslides. (NWS) 

Eastern Pacific:
90L - Medium Potential for Tropical Cyclone Development
A broad area of low pressure located about 225 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico is also producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Conditions appear to be marginally favorable for development as this system moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of days.
Area 1 - Low Potential for Tropical Cyclone Development
A small area of low pressure located just to the southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing limited and disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds. (NWS)

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC,  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of  Sunday, September 21, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (62)
New large fires: 2
Uncontained large fires: 7
Large fires contained: 1
States with large fires: CA, MT, OR
Predictive Fire: Thunderstorm activity today will be mainly across interior portions of the Pacific Northwest and northeastern California. These storms will be a mix of wet and dry, but this entire area should see a wetter transition to showers late today. Otherwise, it will be seasonably warm and dry across the Great Basin, Rockies, and much of the Northeast. Scattered showers and wet thunderstorms are forecast for most of the Southeast.    (NIFC, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)