There are four distinct possibilities.

1. The need for a bailout is a bluff, so nothing happens and Bush finally looks wholly like the idiot asshole that he is. McCain suspended his campaign for nothing. The Republican Party loses in a landslide in November.

2. McCain votes for the bailout, providing cover for other Republicans to follow him, and enough Democrats will sign on so the bailout passes. The Republicans who vote for it blame McCain for the mess, and he loses to Obama, in a landslide, and the Republicans lose more seats, but most of them get re-elected anyway. (Democratic voters think the bailout sucks but it’s not a matter of religion for them as it is with the Republicans.)

3. McCain convinces Bush & Cheney to resign, Pelosi becomes President until January 20, and a Democratic Congress and Executive passes the bailout, all Republicans who have conservative constituencies vote against it and win re-election in November. A few Democratic incumbents get thrown out because the public will hate the bailout, even if it works. Pretty good chance the next Senate has a Republican majority, maybe the House too.

4. The need for a bailout is not a bluff, Bush refuses to leave, McCain refuses to sacrifice his candidacy, the Republicans in Congress won’t vote for the bailout so neither will the Democrats, and the world economy melts down.

Okay it’s your choice. Which of the four scenarios do you think will prevail?

I think the hot potato lands in Bush’s lap. His father comes down and tells him playtime is over, he has to leave to save the world economy, and what little remains of the Bush name, and we limp along until Obama takes office on Jan 20.

11:55AM: Just heard an announcement on MSNBC that McCain has requested that Friday’s debate be postponed so he can focus on the economic plan in front of Congress. He also said he plans to suspend his campaign until the crisis is resolved? Not clear on exactly what was said, but this is obviously a big deal.

AP: McCain calls for debate delay.

First reaction — this is the right thing to do. Whether you like it or not, McCain’s vote on this matter is pivotal, and being in debate prep is probably not the best place for him to be.

Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) says he’s not so sure McCain’s presence is needed in DC. He says the American people could hear from the candidates in the debate. So it’s not clear that Obama is going to react positively to the McCain move.

Picture of McCain announcing the suspension of his campaign.

My first reaction was probably wrong — this was an intensely political decision by McCain and a bit of a double-cross as Obama was trying to work out an agreement between the campaigns privately when McCain decided to go public.

Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post has background.

Lots of new stories on today’s NewsJunk.

Wonkette calls McC’s move a bluff-in-vain. “You could tell after seeing that new Washington Post/ABC News poll this morning that McCain would need one helluva muppet stunt to get himself a farthingworth’s of non-horrendous attention.”

“The debate is on,” a senior Obama campaign official told ABC News.

MP3 of Obama response to McCain.

If you want to spend 40 minutes getting a high-speed update on the financial crisis, I highly recommend yesterday’s Fresh Air interview with NY Times financial reporter Gretchen Morgenson.

There’s a chin-dropping number in the interview. $60 trillion. It’s the dollar value of insurance purchased to back up the money market. It’s as if all the neighborhoods in the world were on fire and the insurance industry is going to have to deal with claims on all of it. Obviously, they never planned for that. But there’s a lot more shocking stuff in the interview, and it raises far more questions than it answers. If you’re like me, and put off understanding how our financial system really works, I’d suggest clearing out 40 minutes and have a listen.

Update: Aaron Pressman, in a comment on this post, suggests (gently, much appreciated) a rewording. “The $62 trillion (not $60) is the total amount of credit default swaps, or insurance policies, that financial firms have written on all types of debt, not just money markets. So: It’s the dollar value of insurance purchased to back up bond market investments. It’s the amount that banks and insurers are on the hook for if absolutely everything goes down the tubes.”

The first question raised by this amazing NY Times piece:

Did McCain know his campaign manager was also on the Freddie Mac payroll?

If he knew, McCain is corrupt to the core, if he didn’t — he’s a figurehead who his own people don’t respect or protect.

Either way it’s not a good thing for a potential future President.

My guess, and it’s just my guess is that McCain didn’t know, that he sold his campaign to Davis and Schmidt when it was clear he had no way to win against Obama, and in doing so guaranteed himself a ceremonial role in his own administration if they could win the election. These are the people who write the speeches for Pailin, who designed her candidacy and it’s looking more and more like Frank Rich hit the bulls eye in his Sept 13 piece about Palin and Whathisname (that would be McCain). McCain is the old brand that gets this crowd of Bush/Cheney/Rove Republicans back in the White House. After the election they’ll just resume doing what they were doing during the previous two Republican administrations. And it still might work. It’s hard to imagine that this revelation will mean much to people already planning to vote for McCain.

McCain’s blogger calls the NY Times “an Obama advocacy organization.”

I bought my iPhone on June 29 last year, the first day they were available. A couple of months later, I realized I wasn’t using my Blackberry and a couple of months after that, I turned it off. I don’t miss it, even though I loved it when I was using it because it meant I didn’t have to lug around my laptop to be in range of email and Twitter.

Now a funny thing has happened since I got my Asus, I’ve stopped using my iPhone as anything other than a phone. The Asus is a much better computer than the iPhone, and eventually I think I will come to use it as a phone too (with Skype). I won’t give up much since I have an EVDO modem, so I’ll be able to use it anywhere I can use an iPhone.

I won’t miss using the iPhone as an iPod because that part of the iPhone only worked for the first couple of weeks, after that, no matter what I do, even after reformatting the phone several times, and using it on different computers, I can’t get it to synch music or videos with the desktop computer. Never mind that synching with a desktop computer is ridiculous for a fully capable computer as the iPhone is, but that’s the point — iPhones are crippled computers, from the start, designed not to function like a computer. So why would anyone think you could happily get it to work like one?

That’s the sad conclusion to the tale of Alex Sokirynsky, the developer of the Podcaster app. He built the software Apple hasn’t gotten around to building and as far as we know never plans to build. HIs software works the way I always intended podcasting to work. Go listen to the early Trade Secrets podcasts I did with Adam Curry four years ago in Seattle. We talked about podcast player devices that had wifi receivers that downloaded and played your favorite programs without help from a bigger computer. Synching was never part of the vision of podcasting. You can see it as requirement #1 on my spec for a new podcast player device in the piece I wrote for the BBC last year.

Anyway, no need to wait for Apple. As Sokirynsky says, there will be other platforms, and it would be easy to make a perfect podcast player app for the Asus. It has such long battery life, and you can configure Windows to keep running when you shut the laptop cover, so there’s no problem using it as a player. It’s a bit overkill, but then Apple doesn’t make a rational podcast player, and willfully shuts one down created by a developer, so it’s the best we have right now.

And today’s Asus actually costs $200 less than the iPhone I bought last June.

Yeah I think I’m beginning to move away from Apple, again. We’ll see how it goes.

How do you prepare for a Great Depression? I was thinking of doing an extra backup. Ordering a few month supply of MREs from Amazon? What else?

Always thinking ahead, it’s possible that by this time next week our economy will lie in ruins, people will be hungry in the streets, out of work, and we’ll all be in for an incredible hardship possibly for the rest of our lives.

Last night at dinner I was musing about this subject. There still are plenty of people around who remember the last Depression. I think some people held onto their work and dignity and were able to put food on the table and stay in their homes. My house was built just before the Depression and it’s still here.

I don’t have a job now, I guess I’m basically retired, although I’m always looking for a new deal that I could make money with. I’ve basically been retired this way since I got out of grad school in 1979.

Anyway, I hope we avoid the Depression. I kind of like the way things were going there, hope we can get around this corner without electing a fascist government too.

PS: I recently saw The Dancer Upstairs, which I enjoyed, and in it there’s a character, a woman, who is always asking what she should wear to this or that. At one point she asks what she should wear to a revolution. I thought of Meg Fowler, and wondered what she would wear to a Great Depression. What’s the right kind of makeup? Shoes? I admit to not understanding women or Great Depressions, but am fascinated by both.

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA) are working to identify a small percentage of disaster assistance applicants who have been trying to cash in on the misfortune of others.

ORLANDO, Fla. — Tropical Storm Fay brought more than flooding. It put people out of work. But people, such as the self-employed, who normally would not be eligible for unemployment may get help through the state-managed, federally funded Disaster Unemployment Assistance program.

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

South
A low pressure system will bring rough seas, strong winds, storm surge and beach erosion from the North Carolina coast south through Florida.

Rain from this system is forecast to spread inland into eastern Georgia and much of South and North Carolina during the day today.

The winds, surge and waves at the coast should begin to diminish tonight.

Northeast
By this evening, rain will continue into the I-95 corridor and move northeast into southern New England and strong winds, rough seas, storm surge and beach erosion will occur from Cape Cod southward to Virginia today and tomorrow.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Puerto Rico Heavy Rainfall

The Puerto Rico Emergency Operations Center (PR EOC) is partially activated 24/7, along with the Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency (PREMA) Joint Information Center (partially activated), select ESF’s and US Coast Guard Liaison.

The Governor has declared a State of Emergency and the Puerto Rican government has reported five (5) confirmed fatalities and zero (0) injuries due to heavy rainfall and flooding.
Seventeen (17) shelters, with a population of 521 (in 16 municipalities) are open, while 14 preventative shelters remain open in twelve (12) municipalities.  (FEMA Region II SPOT Report, Sep 24)
Thirteen (13) rivers are flooded and a total of 47 major roads in 27 municipalities are closed due to flooding or mudslides.

The Puerto Rico Electric and Power Authority (PREPA) reports approximately 4,000 (0.28%) customers are without service and the Puerto Rico Aqueduct Sewer Authority (PRASA) reports about 37,303 (2.99%) customers are without service.  Restoration of utilities is unknown at this time.

Public schools remain closed in 14 municipalities due to heavy rains and flooding.

Joint IA and PA Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) will began yesterday, September 24, in 12 municipalities with PA and IA PDAs requested for an additional 13 municipalities.  Also, facilities are being pre-identified for a potential JFO.

The Puerto Rican Army National Guard (PR ArNG) has 54 soldiers on State Active Duty (SAD) for water distribution, debris clearance, equipment transportation and civilian relocation.  There are 7,893 personnel available statewide and 18,821 personnel available regionwide.  (FEMA Region II & CAD, PREMA, VITEMA, NWS, NGB SitRep #3)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike and Midwest Storms

Region V
Ohio
The State EOC is activated at Level II (Partial Operations).
There are seven (7) fatalities and one (1) injury reported.
There are no shelters reported open, while the US Department of Energy (DOE) reported there are 9,595 customers without power.  Power restoration is expected to be completed in the next 24 - 72 hours.  (Region V Operations Report Sep 24, DOE Sep 24, NSS Shelter Report, Sep 24)

Indiana
The State EOC is activated at Level IV (Normal Operations) and Joint PDAs have been completed in five (5) counties, while two (2) counties continue to assess damages from the severe weather.
There are eight (8) fatalities and 19 injuries reported.
There is one (1) shelter open with a population of 75, and the US DOE reported there are 6,186 customers remain without power.  (Region V Operations Report, Sep 24; DOE, Sep 24; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 24)

FEMA Region VI

Louisiana
The Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) is activated at Level III (Emergency Operations).
There are five (5) fatalities and zero (0) injuries reported.
There are five (5) shelters open with a population of 343, and the US DOE reported 12,287 customers are still without power.
There are 14 Disaster Recovery Centers (DRCs) and two (2) Mobile Disaster Recovery Centers (MDRCs) in support of Hurricane Gustav/Ike recovery efforts.  (SLB, Sep 23; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23; DOE, Sep23)

Texas
The State Operations Center (SOC) is activated at Level I, 24/7 Operations.
There are 19 fatalities and zero (0) injuries reported.
There are 65 shelters open with a population of 5,638, and US DOE reports that 502,637 customers remain without power.
FEMA continues to supply commodities to the Texas State-managed Resource Staging Area.
There are seven (7) Disaster Recovery Center (DRCs) and 13 Mobile Disaster Recovery Center (MDRCs) operational in the state.  (JFO SitRep #13; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23; DOE, Sep 23; SLB, Sep 23)

Presidio, TX Levee Issue Update:
Local gauge readings and flow rates of the Rio Grande River at the Presidio Port of Entry (POE) continue to decrease as the water release rate from the Luis Leon Reservoir in Chihuahua, Mexico was reduced to 600 cubic meters per second.  
The International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) reported the levees are holding, but levee integrity remains a concern.
Levee mitigation work continues, with over 25,000 sandbags filled and placed on the existing levee to add support. (NOC Awareness Report, Sep 24; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 24; DOE, Sep 24)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
93L - High Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, September 25, another well-defined low pressure system, centered about 140 miles east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands, is moving northward at 10-to-15-mph.

Thunderstorm activity has increased and become better organized during the past several hours, and upper-level winds are expected to gradually become more favorable for a tropical depression to develop during the next day or so.  In addition, the threat for heavy rainfall, associated floods and mudslides over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will continue through today.

Extratropical Low - High Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, September 25, a well-defined surface low pressure system, centered about 225 miles southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border, is moving slowly westward.  Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized this morning, and this system could develop into a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today.

Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a subtropical or tropical cyclone, strong winds, coastal flooding, high surf and dangerous rip currents will continue along portions of the US east coast during the next couple of days.  Outer rain bands are already spreading onshore on the southeastern coast of North Carolina, and buoy and ship reports indicate winds in excess of 50 mph are occurring north and west of the center.

Eastern Pacific:
No tropical cyclone expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, September 24, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (67)
New large fires: 0
Uncontained large fires: 4
Large fires contained: 0
States with large fires: CA, NV, OR

Predictive Weather:  A cold front will move across the Pacific Northwest, bringing cloudy and cooler conditions, along with showers along the coast.  However, further south across northeast California and Nevada, this system will bring gusty southwest winds of 20-35 mph with low humidity.  Gradual warming and drying across the Southwest and into the Central Rockies as high pressure strengthens across the Four Corners region.  Some of this warm, dry air will also spread further east, across the Ohio Valley and into much of the Southeast, except for coastal areas where heavy rain is expected. (NIFC, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Illinois:  The Governor of Illinois requested a Major Disaster Declaration for the State of Illinois as a result of Severe Storm and Flooding from September 13, 2008 and continuing.  The request includes Individual Assistance for 7 counties (Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, LaSalle and Will) and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

Oklahoma: The Governor requested an expedited Major Disaster Declaration for the State of Oklahoma as a result of Severe Storms and Tornadoes that took place on September 11, 2008.  The request includes Individual Assistance and Public Assistance (including direct Federal assistance) for five counties (Alfalfa, Grant, Kay, Major and Woods) and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

Amendment #10 to FEMA-1785-DR-FL adds Martin County for Individual Assistance; Alachua, Gadsden, and Liberty Counties for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance) and Lee County for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance).  (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Strong winds, heavy surf and beach erosion will affect beaches through the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and Thursday. 
Wind gusts around Tidewater, Virginia could exceed 40 mph by late in the day today, with tides running 1-to-3-feet above normal.

South
Heavy surf, gusty winds, dangerous rip currents and increasing rain in the coastal areas in North Carolina, especially the Outer Banks, are forecast for today.

Midwest
A decreasing cold front may still trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms from the Great Lakes to the central Plains.
A few storms may become severe over parts of southern Iowa and Nebraska.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Puerto Rico Heavy Rainfall (93L)

The Puerto Rico Emergency Operations Center (PR EOC) is partially activated 24/7, along with the Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency (PREMA) Joint Information Center (partially activated), select ESF’s and US Coast Guard Liaison.
The Governor has declared a State of Emergency and the Puerto Rican government has reported four (4) confirmed fatalities and zero (0) injuries due to heavy rainfall and flooding.
Seventeen (17) shelters, with a population of 528 (in 15 municipalities) are open, while 14 preventative shelters remain open in twelve (12) municipalities.  (FEMA Region II SPOT Report)
Thirteen (13) rivers are flooded and a total of 27 major roads in 17 municipalities are closed due to flooding or mudslides.
The Puerto Rico Electric and Power Authority (PREPA) reports approximately 5,800 (0.37%) customers are without service and the Puerto Rico Aqueduct Sewer Authority (PRASA) reports about 36,774 (2.94%) customers are without service.  Restoration of utilities is unknown at this time.
Public schools remain closed in 14 municipalities due to heavy rains and flooding.
Joint IA and PA Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) will begin today, September 24, in 12 municipalities with PA and IA PDAs requested for an additional 13 municipalities.  Also, facilities are being pre-identified for a potential JFO. (FEMA Region II & CAD, PREMA, VITEMA, NWS)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike and Midwest Storms

Region V
Ohio
The State EOC is activated at Level II (Partial Operations).
There are seven (7) fatalities and one (1) injury reported.
There is one (1) shelter open with a population of 12 while the US Department of Energy (DOE) reported there are 25,309 customers without power.  Power restoration is expected to be completed by early next week (Sep 29).  (Region V Operations Report Sep 23, DOE Sep 23, NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23)
Indiana
The State EOC is activated at Level IV (Normal Operations) and Joint PDAs continue to assess damages from the severe weather.
There are eight (8) fatalities and 19 injuries reported.
There is one (1) shelter open with a population of six (6) and the US DOE reported there are 6,186 customers remain without power. (DOE, Sep 23; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23)

FEMA Region VI
Louisiana
The Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP) is activated at Level III (Emergency Operations).
There are five (5) fatalities and zero (0) injuries reported.
There are seven (7) shelters open with a population of 489 and the US DOE reported 12,287 customers are still without power.
There are 14 Disaster Recovery Centers (DRCs) and two (2) Mobile Disaster Recovery Centers (MDRCs) in support of Hurricane Gustav/Ike recovery efforts. (SLB, Sep 23; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23; DOE, Sep23)
Texas
The State Operations Center (SOC) is activated at Level I, 24/7 Operations.
There are 19 fatalities and zero (0) injuries reported.
There are 126 shelters open with a population of 11,937, and US DOE reports that 745,241 customers remain without power.
All FEMA-managed Points of Distribution (PODS) have been closed.  FEMA continues to supply commodities to the Texas State-managed Resource Staging Area.
There are three (3) Disaster Recovery Center (DRCs) and 11 Mobile Disaster Recovery Center (MDRCs) located in Texas.
The City of Galveston will reopen today, September 24, and the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has established 28 Rights-of-Entry (ROE) sites for citizens to register their property for the Blue Roof Program.  (JFO SitRep #13; NSS Shelter Report, Sep 23; DOE, Sep 23; SLB, Sep 23)
Presidio, TX Levee issue update:
Presidio County, along with the City of Presidio, continues efforts to mitigate the flood impacts from the Rio Grande River. 
Over 1,300 sandbags are being placed on the existing levee to add support; in total, 6,500 sandbags are in place in all the problem areas.  The Department of Defense (DoD) continues to provide CH-47 helicopter support to provide sandbags and supplies.
Helicopters are being used to fill in openings under bridges with large sandbags in an existing railroad right-of-way to create secondary levees.
Mexico has temporarily slowed the rate of water release from the Luis Leon Reservoir in order to allow workers time to shore up the Presidio levees.
The response priorities for this incident are to prevent levee failure, continue maintaining emergency shelter operations, ensure Public Health needs are addressed, providing water/wastewater services in the City/County if a catastrophic flood event occurs and providing for a rapid response for search and rescue should the levees fail. (TX SOC Rio Grande River Flood Event SITREP # 3, USNORTHCOM)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
93L - High Potential for Tropical Cyclone Development
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, September 24, the broad area of low pressure over Hispaniola continues to generate a large area of cloudiness and showers, extending northward from the northeastern Caribbean Sea, across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and into the western Atlantic.
This system is interacting with land and has not yet developed a well-defined surface circulation, but atmospheric conditions remain favorable for development and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as this system moves north of Hispaniola.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are expected to continue over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today.
Heavy rains could also spread northward over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today or tonight.
Eastern Pacific:
90L - Low Potential for Tropical Cyclone Development
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, September 24, shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with the surface low pressure system located approximately 430 miles south of the southern tip of Baja, California.
This system is expected to move west-northwestward over the next two days and further development, if any, should be slow to occur.
Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, September 23, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (70)
New large fires: 0
Uncontained large fires: 4
Large fires contained: 1
States with large fires: CA, NV, OR

Predictive Fire:  It will become warmer and drier from Texas westward across the Southwest as high pressure starts to build in across the Four Coners region.  The Northern Rockies area is also forecast to dry out and become a little warmer.  A cold front will approach the Pacific Northwest and northern California, bringing a cool westerly onshore flow, along with increasing high clouds.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue again across Florida.  Elsewhere, the forecast calls for mainly seasonable, early fall conditions. (NIFC, NICC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President signed a Disaster Declaration, FEMA-1795-DR, for severe storms and flooding that occurred in Indiana, September 23, 2008 and continuing.  Three (3) counties (Lake, LaPorte and Porter) are eligible for Individual Assistance and Hazard Mitigation is approved statewide.  The FCO will be Stephen M. DeBlasio, Sr. (FEMA HQ)